2nd International Scientific "Energy and Climate Change" Conference
A. Energy Policy
General topics
"Integral Energy Contracting: Integration of Demand Side Measures into Energy Supply Contracting Models", by Jan W. Bleyl and Daniel Schinnerl (Graz Energy Agency Ltd – Austria)
The search for suitable energy efficiency implementation instruments is ongoing in all end use consumption sectors but the level of implementation is far from satisfactory as the continous increase in final energy consumption reveals. Since the mid of this decade, Energy Services (ES) have climbed high on political agendas and have even reached the headlines of energy efficiency legislation [2006/32/EC]. "Energy Contracting" is cited many times as a smart multi-purpose-instrument, which could help to overcome market barriers. But the realistic potentials, the limits and obstacles of ESCo products are not well enough understood yet.
Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) projects, if implemented properly, have successfully delivered guaranteed energy and cost savings of 20 % and above since they were first established in Europe around 1995. Nevertheless, success is essentially limited to the public sector and spread very unevenly throughout Europe.
Besides requiring dedicated and perservering project developers, the EPC model itself imposes obstacles from a methodological point of view, especially if the cost baseline is difficult to determine. Or if frequent adjustments to the baseline are necessary due to changes in utilization of the building or a production process. As a consequence, transaction cost of EPC projects are particularly high, resulting in minimum project seizes of 100.000 €/a energy cost baselines. Also the ESCo’s risks associated with the EPC savings guarantee causes considerable safety surcharges and may result in additional cost.
The latter problems are not encountered with the Energy Supply Contracting (ESC) model, because no baseline is needed to measure guaranteed savings. Further on, the ESC-model is also common in other end use sectors such as industry or housing. The problem is that ESC measures are typically limited to the energy supply side not covering demand reductions in the building or the production process itself.
"Assessing the impact of traffic regulations on the waiting queues of maritime straits; the Bosporus example", by Nikolaos KONTINAKIS (KEPA-NKUA - Greece)
Straits consist a key component of international maritime traffic while, the combination of limited capacity and heavy traffic load poses a challenge for combining safe and efficient navigation. In the current article, a general and fully parameterizable queueing model is proposed in order to evaluate the impact of physical characteristics, queueing schemes, applied regulations and transit traffic attributes to the efficiency of the straits system. Bosporus (Istanbul, Turkey) demonstrates a unique combination of, on one hand, navigation difficulties and heavy traffic load and, on the other hand, comprehensive and detailed regulations that govern its operations, thus, comprising a suitable testbench for the proposed model. Variations of five applied regulations and traffic scheduling policies are modelled and their impact on the average waiting time and the average queue length is assessed and discussed.
"Role of the ECT in CCS" by Dr. Sedat Cal (Energy Charter Secretariat - Belgium)
Scope of legal regulation of ECT in relation with CCS
Definition of CO2 in the ECT
As it currently stands, the ECT provides no specific definition on CCS. Furthermore, the travaux preparatoires contain no reference to CCS or the place carbon capture might hold within the energy cycle. Therefore, a detailed analysis is required in order to see how the ECT bears on the issue of CCS. The ECT does not clearly stipulate whether CO2 is to be taken as “waste” or “energy material”, yet a discussion thereby would help determine if the CCS would be covered by the investment or trade & transit related provisions of the ECT.One may easily lead to a conclusion that CO2 would not be covered under the provisions of the ECT regulating the transit of Energy Products and Materials. Nevertheless, it is also relevant to refer to Article 1(5), which may be asserted that CO2 might be considered to be within the sphere of “economic activities in the energy sector”.
Should CCS activities are covered under the Investment related provisions of the ECT, this may also help induce the argument that ECT article about transfer of technology would also be applicable to the CCS, since it regulates issues also relating to Investment.
These provisions cover the two important aspects of the legal treatment of CCS and especially the difficult issue of defining CO2. Under the relevant articles, it is difficult to define what is CO2, a waste or an industrial commodity? The important argument is that the CO2 storage is part of the entire “energy cycle” which is regulated under the ECT, especially regarding the minimization of harmful environmental impacts stemming from energy related activities. It should also be remembered hereunder that this is a “soft-law” obligation under the ECT, and therefore the legally binding nature of it is rather disputable. Another parallel way of thinking may be drawn vis-a-vis the LNG activities under the ECT.
What if, then, the LNG is used for chemical purposes, such as in fertilizer plants? Would such a use be covered under the general spirit of the ECT? How should the ECT provisions be understood in terms of taking a product as within the energy cycle, towards a prospective use of it in the energy form, or towards a backward look at the cycle in promoting the production of energy? And where should we draw the line in successive chain of activities?
The answers to the questions raised above might have some implications under the CO2. And this paper shall indeed try to answer those possible questions.
What is the practical outcome of the answers to be found in the context of the ECT? The basic response to this issue is to found in the fact that major CO2 producing centers are far from the main CO2 storage facilities and this makes it almost essential or obligatory to establish a legal framework for trans-boundary CO2 transportation, basically via pipelines as is the case in the U.S. And the ECT as a multilateral legal framework already in existence makes clear the relevance of any analysis in this area which this paper asserts to deal with.A1: Conventional fuels (oil, gas, coal, lignite)
"The main trends of coal processing in the aspect of Clean Coal Technologies", by Adam Smolinski (Central Mining Institute Department of Energy Saving and Air Protection - Poland)
According to the US DOE projections, the world total net electricity production is predicted to double from 17,3 - 1018 kWh in 2005 to 33,3 - 1018 kWh in 2030. In this perspective, coal is said to retain the largest market share of electricity generation. The installed coal-fired capacity share will be about 30%, growing from 1,119 GW to 1,997 GW. Despite the predicted major role of crude oil, mainly in the transport sector, and the growing share of natural gas in power generation, as outlined in the forecast of energy use structure by 2030, coal remains the most important fuel for power generation. Being the most abundant and competitive, coal recoverable reserves could satisfy the world’s energy needs in the perspective of about 130-160 years at the current consumption levels. Coal contribution to world electricity supply of about 41% remains highest since 1971 and its prices are relatively low and stable in comparison with oil and gas prices which are heavily dependent on political situation. There is however, a need for further improvement of coal-fired power generation in terms of economics and environmental impact. The so called ‘clean coal technologies’ enabling energy efficient and environmentally sustainable use of coal include: supercritical pulverized coal combustion (PPC), circulating fluidized bed combustion (CFBC), pressurized fluidized bed combustion (PFBC), pressurized circulating fluidized bed combustion (PCFBC), integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), IGCC-fuel cells and hybrid gasification/combustion systems.
In the paper the future role of coal with special emphasis on Polish resources of hard coal and lignite are presented as well as the main trends in coal processing in the aspect of Clean Coal Technologies, in particularly coal gasification to the synthetic natural gas and hydrogen.
"Quantifying the chance for releasing of a hazardous substance owing to accidents" by Argirov J. P. (Institute for Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy - Bulgaria)
The energy sector is a source of accidents, which can affect environment and human health too badly. Even accidents with little or no consequences outside a given engineering system (ES) may be extremely costly for its owner and the society. Malfunctions of an ES’ equipment can end with emission of hazardous substances, responsible for instant and long-term consequences. Huge fires or explosions can occur after releasing of fuel. Poisoning of the air, soil and waters owing to production of toxic substances after such events is also likely.
The accidents can never be entirely prevented. However, reducing the chance for severe consequences is a useful strategy for spending minimal resources for post accident activities. The uncertainty associated with the consequences due to likely accidents should be addressed first. Then measures for safety increasing can be specified.
The paper will briefly discuss a methodology for quantifying the chance for releasing of a hazardous substance after a component of an ES is failed. The approach applies deterministic and probabilistic methods. Bayesian statistics is used to quantify the probability for release of a hazardous substance within a given region around the failed component. Deterministic methods estimate the release rate of the substance of study, given the location of failure. A cylindrical tank with liquid fuel is considered as a simple case study to demonstrate how the approach works."Energy and Environmental Impacts from an extensive use of VSDs in Uzbek Industry" by Prof. Khashimov Aripdjan Adilovich (Tashkent State Technical University - Uzbekistan) and Prof. Rampias Ioannis (Technological Educational Institute of Athens - Greece)
There have been proposed a new design of controller for asynchronous motor drive systems (which constantly adjusts the voltage to the motor terminals in such a way as to provide just the sufficient magnetizing forces to meet the driven load demand) and the consequent improvements in efficiency of the drive systems. Initially, this controller was used for the training and research needs of the students at Tashkent State Technical University (TSTU). The research work was conducted at the laboratories of the Chair of the Energy Faculty of TSTU From the very early tests it was evident that the controller had a great prospect for wide use applications in industry, agriculture and other sectors where reducing energy consumption costs of electric motor driven systems is important.
In order to investigate the behaviour and the potential for electricity savings of a motor with and without the new controller several tests for more than five years were performed on various sizes of induction motors in different applications in industry in Uzbekistan. A selection of industrial results obtained from tests on the controllers in various motor drive systems is presented, analyzed and discussed. The selected electric motors and drive systems are the following:
o a 75 kW motor of a compressor,
o a 7.5 kW motor of a drain pump and
o a 11 kW motor of a ventilator,
all within the industrial site of the "Uzbek metallurgical plant" in Tashkent Province.Taking into account the above mentioned industrial results, a scenario based approach is used to allow evaluation of energy savings potential in Uzbekistan from the use of controllers in industrial application. The results of this study could help to better understand the costs and benefits of various policies to accelerate energy efficient technologies.
The analysis focuses on two scenarios:
• Business-As-Usual (BAU)
• Moderate
The BAU forecast describes a future in which policies and the use of controllers are not greatly different from today. In contrast, the Moderate Scenario is defined by policies that are consistent with an increasing level of public commitment and political resolve to solving the nation's energy related challenges. The Moderate Scenario requires larger expenditures on public and private R&D, incentives in industry, and government investment in programmes that promote the energy efficient technologies. It must be emphasized that none of the two scenarios is a prediction of the future, and they only attempt to characterise the results of different assumptions about the future of the energy system and the economy in Uzbekistan.
"Information - analytical system of complex diagnosing and estimation of risk for good safety transportations of hydrocarbons of the main pipeline", by A.T.Jamalov, E.E.Ramazanova, O.A.Dyshin,I.A.Habibov (GPOGC - Azerbaijan)
Local intensity of failures is predicted on the basis of the statistical data on incidents and refusals and by results of expert estimations of structurally technological features, conditions of construction, operation and the current condition of the process equipment. For increase of accuracy of the forecast of probability of rare accidents (explosions, fires, have sat, etc.) methods of decrease in statistical uncertainty of the forecast of accidents are used on the basis of the available statistical data for some period of supervision in view of tendencies of change of their number and distribution on damage.
On the basis of the analysis of critical situations man – caused the nature necessity of use robust pertaining to bayes estimations for definition of parameters of reliability and safe operation, main pipelines systems (MPS) is shown at presence of the incomplete primary information. The probability of risk from occurrence of failure of the certain tic is the help of algorithm of calculation, probability of unavailability of system of the protection available MPS, from the given type of failure.
For the account in settlement models of all risk factors the corporate database (DB) on the basis of which with the help information-analytical system (IAS) manages the expert estimations dependent, first of all from terms of operation and system of maintenance service of objects of extraction and transportation of oil and gas is under construction.
Essentially an important point of analytical processing of results deshefration pictures received at remote sounding Earth, is the problem of classification potentially dangerous for ?PS natural objects in condition time inconsistency of the data of training sample and recognize object. For the decision of the given problem the method of classification and recognition of objects is offered on the basis of the supervision received during the unequal moments of time, with use of procedure of a time binding of the data of training sample.
For forecasting downturn of a bottom in alignment crossings of water-currents by pipelines the description of washout of a channel of the rivers with the help of the stochastic differential equations linearly dependent on required unknown function (depth of washout) is given. Time of achievement by process is more true than border (limiting depth of washout) it is represented analytically as quarters from the initial data."The introduction of new reagents, jobs, raising to efficiency, at production and transportation of high paraffin oils" by E.E. Ramazanova, A.N. Zeynalov (GPOGC – Azerbaijan)
The analysis of the condition of the control of the complications in asphalt–resin– paraffin oils extraction and transporting shows that the main problematic question is the deposit of solid hydrocarbon phases hoisting pipes hole bottom reservoir also in the equipment of discharge system, oil transporting and storage. We have carried out certain works in this direction, and as a result new highly effective reagents, conditionally named MORE–R, PG–R have been developed. These reagents are also good solvents and reducers of viscosity and solidification of paraffin oils. Developed new compositions are multicomponent. There are there are patents of the Azerbaijan republic and technical conditions for these reagents. Reagents industrial tests have passed out successfully and are let out by factories and applied in the concentrations 50 - 500 q/t depending on oil type and paraffin content. The reagents are added into the flow before the beginning of paraffin deposit.
The industrial test was carried out reagent ??RE in a chink ? 2576 in NQEE «Neft Dashlar» is skilled. Results rather positive. So, the number of heat treatment of chinks with hot petroleum was reduced. Besides, if before introduction reagent each month was replaced 50 - 60 pieces of pipes by new, however after introduction reagent ??RE within 6 months the education of paraffin in pipes lift did not occur. It was established after rise of a pipe from a chink. It is a very good parameter. As, clearing of pipes lift from paraffin adjournment rather labour-consuming job. Besides the environment becomes soiled. Other positive factor is the reduction middle of the daily charge of gas. So, if before introduction he made about 5000 m3/day, after introduction of reagent has made - 3420 m3/day.
Reagent PG was applied too in a chink 2358 NQEE «Neft Dashlar» in struggle against paraffin of adjournment in pipes lift. The results have appeared rather effective."New composition og high inhibited drilling mud for use of unstable clay deposits", by Tatliyev Kh.S., Malikov Q., Rasulov S.R., Zeynalov N.E. (GPOGC – Azerbaijan)
Control of these or other complications in the drilling of unstable clay deposits by the mud waterless control is not successful. It is connected with that the pressure of water diffusion suction into the clay is approximately in 34.5 – 69 MPa diapason.
That’s why the significance of mud waterless doesn’t play any role: it will suck the necessary moisture for clay. After clay plates adsorb water, suction pressure reduces till the balance condition. From the other hand as soon as clays water, tension increases to fail. The value of this strength is so high, that in hermetic environment it can deform not only casing columns not depending on their thickness, but also earth crust.
For solving of this task and also for reducing collector data of productive reservoir foreign companies use synthetic and other drilling muds. But these muds are not available for local enterprises. On the instruction of SOCAR a new composition of high inhibited drilling mud has been developed. The new composition (patented, conditionally named PAK – f) is at the same time is a filter reducer of drilling mud. For example after adding 0,5; 0,75; 0,88; 1 % dry product to the drilling mud made in sea water and having initial filtration 35 sm3/30 min (on BM –6) the filtration reduces greatly, than in mud treatment by known filtration reducers – polysacharide polyanions. The example of preparing of drilling mud is shown in the report."Problems of repair and renewal operations in oil and gas industry" by A.M.Pashayev, A.Sh.Mehtiyev, A.Kh.Janahmadov, N.G.Javadov (Azerbaijan Engineering Academy)
Annually the volume of operations on liquidation of failures in drilling and exploitation of wells increases. According to statistics, regularity of failures per thousand metres equals 0,3. If single isolation performance in a well with depth of 2000 m takes 30-40 hours on the average, so for liquidation of one failure it takes about 800 hours.
In this connection the first priorities are the drastic reduction of duration of repair and renewal operations in wells, introduction of modern technologies in the manufacture processes and advanced designs of repair machinery promoting a decrease of round-trip operations number, taking into account the peculiarities of conditions of oil and gas wells exploitation.
Problems with wells of the liquidated stock requires the application of consistent and complex approach to their decision and to this purpose the programme system for selection of effective variant/way of carrying out of repair and renewal operations has been offered and elaborated.A2: Electricity
"Study of Environment Related Economic Policy Instruments for the German Electricity Market", by Tobias Jager, Susanne Schmidt and Ute Karl (European Institute for Energy Research (EIFER) – Germany)
The objective of this paper is to show the impacts of various environment related economic policy instruments on electricity market prices, the energy mix and CO2 emissions for Germany. The study will contain comparisons between policies affecting operating costs of electricity production technologies regarding a CO2 tax, feed-in tariffs, a bonus for cogeneration and green certificates. For this analysis a dynamic simulation model for the German electricity spot market was developed by EIFER, called “Zertsim”. This techno-economic model, based on the methodology of System Dynamics, is able to depict complex and dynamic relations of an (energy) system by use of causal loops for the presentation of short, medium and long term effects on each variable in the model. Due to the description of complex causal relations, fast model runs and immediate visual presentations which are easy to understand, the model is able to provide profound information for support of discussions in political fora and support for corporate planning. The outcome of the model calculations are five scenarios (reference scenario and four policy scenarios) for the future development of the electricity system in Germany. With these scenarios an order of the analysed policies can be derived, guiding the electricity market to meet the CO2 emissions target for Germany.
The 3rd Legislative Package offers, through the 10 year development plan of the network, the opportunity to promote the use of renewables and the efficient development of the network for the welfare of the society. According to the Regulation (EC) of the European Parliament and of the Council on conditions for access to the network for cross-border exchanges in electricity and repealing Regulation (EC) No 1228/2003, “the network development plan shall include the modelling of the integrated network, scenario development, a European generation adequacy outlook and an assessment of the resilience of the system”. Considering the huge renewable potential in electricity production and the EU grid connection problems, this regulation is a lever for renewable energy promotion.
The paper will contain a short description of the present Romanian electricity system, the actual regulatory framework focused on the investment criteria and modelling of the network. It will presents proposals for developments of the regulatory framework regarding to the investment establishment and necessary system reserves, their level and the economical impact on the electricity system in the context of new European regulations regarding to the network development."Application of energy storage with STATCOM for improvement of power system performance" by Prof. K. D. Joshi and Ms. Pallavi R. Mahale (G.H.Raisoni College of Engineering – India)
FACTS is an emerging technology that is being implemented in a number of facilities nation-wide and internationally. Recent developments in electrical power systems such as deregulation, open access, and cogeneration may be creating transmission congestion and forced outages scenarios. Addition of new transmission lines is an almost impossible solution due to environmental and other considerations. Developing of new approaches to Power System Operation and Control are required for overload relief, and efficient and reliable operation. Supporting dynamic disturbances such as transmission lines switching, loss of generation, short-circuits and load rejection, needs the reactive control to be fast enough to maintain the desired voltage levels and the system stability. Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS), besides the underlying concept of independent control of active and reactive power flows, are an efficient solution to the reactive power control problem and voltage in transmission and distribution systems, offering an attractive alternative for achieving such objectives. One of the FACTS controllers is STATCOM, self commuted switching power converters are playing viable and vital role in power delivery in the recent era of transmission and distribution system. STATCOM is the voltage-source converter, which converts a DC input voltage into AC output voltage in order to compensate the active and reactive needed by the system. In the first step, this paper presents an in-depth investigation of dynamic performance of STATCOM theoretically. In second step, complete digital simulation of the STATCOM within the power system is performed and sample simulation results are preferred. At last, paper proceeds with the discussion on integration of STATCOM with/without energy storage.
"Sustainable Energy Planning for Autonomous Power System of Crete" by Emmanuel Karapidakis, Nikos Zografakis and Emmanuel Thalassinakis (Technological Educational Institute of Crete, Greece)
The autonomous power system of Crete has been selected as a representative model for long term energy planning estimation in case of significant high share in power and energy balance from renewable sources. The general generation capacity expansion model selects from conventional electricity generation technologies such as thermal power plants, combined cycle plants, combustion turbines, and RES technologies such as wind parks, photovoltaics and hybrid systems in order to supply the projected demand of the future years. Power system operation and control restrictions, performance projections, as well as generation expansion costs, has been comprehensively considered. This study demonstrates that a substantial share of Crete’s projected power and energy demand can be supplied from RES and hybrid systems by the end of 2020. This scenario is technically feasible, not cost-prohibitive, and provides benefits in the forms of carbon emission reductions, energy adequacy and dependency.
"Optimum Production Planning of GT-Based Power Plants" by Giovanni Cerri, Marco Gazzino, Ambra Giovannelli and Coriolano Salvini (Universita degli Studi ROMA TRE - Italy)
The liberalisation of electricity market pushes for optimum power plants production. planning Maintenance management and load allocation are crucial aspects for achieving maximum plant profitability. The paper describes a methodology to optimize GT based power plants operations taking performance deterioration and life consumption into account. The approach takes market scenarios, as well as actual status and performance of plant components into account. The paper mainly focuses on the planning algorithm, including plant simulator and deterioration models. A supervisor algorithm (based on a Genetic Algorithm) provides the operating parameters needed to establish each plant loading. Modelling of plant performance degradation and life consumption of hot section components have been considered as one of the key feature necessary to simulate the plant behaviour. In order to speed up calculations plant neural models have been developed. To reduce the computational effort required to set up the plant neural model, a peculiar approach based on intermediate neural models used in cascade arrangement has been applied.
It is shown how the application of a reliable plant performance deterioration and life consumption prediction model could lead to improved machine exploitation through an effective maintenance scheduling. Economic implications related to maintenance strategies including postponement or anticipation of maintenance interventions are investigated and results obtained by the numerical simulation are presented and widely discussed."Features of power energy compensation in a traction network for the movement of load", by Berzan V.P., Rimschi V.X., Patsyuk V.I., Tirsu M.S., Andros I.V. (Institute of Power Engineering of Academy of Sciences of Moldova)
Energy efficiency of the electrified railway transportation to a great extent depends on degree of compensation of reactive power on traction feeding transformer substations. Use of compensation of reactive power allows decreasing up to 30-40 % of expenses for the consumed electrical energy. The traction network is an electric circuit with variable parameters and structure changing in time, therefore the analysis of processes in such network has its features. In the given paper the analytical method for the analysis of influence of constant loading which moves with a speed on consumption of reactive power from a feeding power supply system is stated. The task of minimisation of reactive power on input and exit of a portion of length l for traction network on which the electric locomotive moves is considered. Results of the investigations of the modelling task will be the representation of a traction network in the form of a circuit with the distributed parameters, and loading is a circuit with the concentrated parameters. It is shown, that depending on the location of load (electric locomotive) character of reactive power changes that is generated by compensating devices, and its value depends on value of active load. The approach offered in the paper allows to investigate modes of a traction network of the electrified railway transport and to define laws of regulation of power compensating devices at full compensation of reactive power in the traction as at unilateral, and a bilateral charge of loading.
"Premises for large-scale implementation of distributed generation in Romania" by George Lavrov and Camelia Vasile (ISPE -Romania)
In the recent years a remarkable turn from centralized systems for electricity generation to decentralized ones has been observed due to the technological innovations and to the radical changes in the economic and regulatory fields. Distributed generation is gradually introduced as an alternative solution to confront with serious issues which have emerged from the traditional development and operation of power systems. Mainly, these issues regard the high cost and time consuming infrastructure required for the construction of new generation plants and transmission lines and their proven environmental consequences. Additionally, these facilities are related with centralized planning policies, which is an obvious contradiction with the new trend guided by the electricity market liberalization.
The benefits from the development of DG mainly come up from its flexibility in the new liberalized market and the environmental friendliness it exhibits. Since power reliability is one of the major concerns especially for customers with important loads (e.g., industries, hospitals) the liberalization of electricity market gives them the opportunity to invest in DG facilities in order to reassure their power needs and therefore increase the overall system reliability.
However, some important difficulties are met towards the direction of DG development. First of all the specific technical issues have to do with the drastic influences brought by DG to the grids. While DG may provide adequate support to power quality, the large-scale implementation of DG schemes can create problems related with voltage stability, reactive power support and short-circuit levels. Additionally, financial reasons impede a fast and wide-spread evolution of DG. The capital costs/kW required for the construction of DG units is still high compared to large central plants mainly due to the fact that DG technologies are considered new (microturbines, PV).
The paper presents the economic and technical barriers for the penetration of DG in Romania, the necessary regulatory measures that would contribute to a secure and economical integration of DG and the priorities for further research that has to be carried out for fundamental innovations in the Romanian grid.
"About some features of the power transfer mode on the long transmission line" by Berzan V.P., Rimschi V.X., Tirsu M.S., Patsyuk V.I., Uzun M.N. (IPE - Moldova)
Electric energy is very convenient for transportation on the big distances. Such property, as well as discrepancy of an arrangement of primary power resources and places of their consumption has defined a vector of electric power industry infrastructure development, namely developments long transmission high voltage lines for transfer of the big power flows to consumption zones. The increase in length of transmission line leads to qualitative and quantitative changes of transmission mode, including growth of power losses, that as a result influences energy efficiency of power system functioning.
In the given paper the problem of simultaneous increase of EFFICIENCY values of an electricity transmission and transferred power, and also optimization of functioning mode of long transmission line is considered.
Conditions of constant power transfer both through lines of direct current and alternative current are considered. For alternative current line it is shown, that:
a) maxima of functions of power generated and transferred in loading, efficiency and power factor of long line are reached at various values of active loading; b) at increase in losses in the line we observe a divergence of maxima between generated and transferred power in loading; c) generated power transferred in loading, the maximum value of efficiency and power on line input, and also value of resistance of loading which provides the greatest transferred power, are functions of line length; d) matched resistance of alternative current line does not coincide with its wave resistance.
- to increase ecological and economic coals burning efficiency;
- to involve oxidized coals into the fuel-energy balance of Russia;
- to refuse from expensive mazut while firing and illuminating the furnace chamber torch of the thermal power stations boilers in power systems.
In 2005-2009 the coal treatment burning technology was applied at the Russian thermal power stations in 200 MW steam generating units.
The analysis of thermal and economic calculations made for different thermal power stations showed that even small initial investments into this technology give the following results:
- the profit index is more than 1;
- the expenditure time is less than 3 years.
All these factors prove high investment attractiveness of the coals burning technology.A3. Renewable Energy Sources (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass, tidal wave)
"Co-development of wind farms with other energy source technologies" by Dr. Otilia Marin and Ms. Violeta Radu (ANRE - Romania)
This new challenge makes more actual the question if the electricity only market forces could normally lead the system to a medium term security/adequacy. There are concerns that in real life the electricity only market cannot assure the adequate capacity at all moments. The signal given by a high electricity price could have diferrent roots as a lack of producing capacity, energy resources or congestion. A more dedicated signal, led by market forces, should be developed on different types of medium term requested capacities.
The Romanian Energy Regulatory Authority developed in July 2007 a regulatory framework for a capacity mechanism as a first step in order to ensure such a more specific signal.
The dimension of the installable wind power has to be determined based on the installed and new coming capacity qualified for ancillary services in the electricity system, the instantaneous, not average, available ancillary services, the characteristics of the existing and new coming wind farms (installed power, simultaneous power, wind potential and its characteristics), network congestion etc.
The paper will contain a short description of the present situation of the Romanian electricity system, the actual regulatory framework focused on capacity mechanism (obstacles and results) and new developments of the regulatory framework regarding to the definition of necessary reserves, their level and the economical impact on the electricity system from the perspective of wind energy."Barriers on renewable energy sources in Greece " by A.M. Papadopoulos , S.N. Boemi (University of Ioannina - Greece), S. Kontogianni and A. Karagiannidis (Aristotle University of Thessaloniki - Greece)
Renewable energy (RE), excluding big hydroelectric plants, currently covers only 4,21% of total primary energy production in Greece. Despite adding another 7,8% production percentile from big hydroelectric plants, it is still quite ambitious to believe that the set objectives of achieving 20% of electricity production from RE sources by 2010 and 20% of total energy production from RE sources by 2020 will be met. The potential though, does exist; so do a series of barriers. National legislation is trying to help the development of a “green electricity market”, through supply-side policies like subsidies for renewable electricity production and attractive feed-in tariff rates. However, socio-economic and public awareness problems are still usually faced in the planning and implementation of RES projects, backed by the lack of a spatial development master plan for Greece, specifying areas eligible for RES development. Numerous specific barriers occur per individual category of RE source and the necessary on-going wider inclusion of waste-derived RE in the examined palette is further increasing the complexity of the entire issue. The consolidated study of this broad set of barriers was a major part of the work carried out within a Hellenic-Canadian research project; the main results will be presented in this paper.
"Potential of floating wind turbines in Aegean Sea" by Prof. Nikitas Nikitakos, Dr. Theodoros Lilas (University of the Aegean - Greece)
• availability of large continuous areas, suitable for major projects,
• higher wind speeds, which generally increase with distance from the shore (Britain is an exception to this as the speed-up factor over hills means that the best wind resources are where the turbines are also most visible),
• less turbulence, which allows the turbines to harvest the energy more effectively and reduces the fatigue loads on the turbine,
In the Aegean sea the higher depths is a major issue to use permanent installed offshore wind turbine so the proposed floating windturbine is recently gaining better acceptance. In the paper after a review of Aegean sea wind and wave potential we are examining the different technologies for floating windturbines, restrictions to be connected with main electric grid, the anchoring and construction technologies and finally we present a finite elements’ strength analysis for the world wide first floating wind powered installation in the Aegean sea.
"Least Cost Optimisation modelling of the 2020 energy and environmental targets in EU27 - The PanEuropean TIMES model" by Dr George Giannakidis (Centre for Renewable Energy Sources and Saving - Greece)
The PanEuropean TIMES model was used to analyse a number of future options for policies and measures in order to study the quantitative effects on the RES development in each of the EU27 countries in view of the renewable energy targets and emission reduction targets set for 2020. TIMES is one of the tools developed by the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP), an implementing agreement of the International Energy Agency. It is an economic model generator for national or multi-regional energy systems, which provides a technology rich basis for estimating the development of the energy system, using a least cost optimisation approach.
In the PanEuropean model, distributed generation is modelled using three different voltage levels for the electricity grid, with specific technologies generating at a specified voltage. A detailed modelling of the bioenergy supply chain is included in the model, using existing data for the production potential and costs in each of the EU27 countries.
Four alternative scenarios were examined in the framework of the RES2020 project. These were the Business as Usual Scenario, without the enforcement of the target for renewable energy sources in 2020, the RES Reference Scenario where the target for renewable energy sources per Member State and the corresponding targets for CO2 emission in 2020 are enforced, the RES Statistical Transfer Scenario which is similar to the RES-Reference scenario but includes the statistical transfer mechanism described in the Renewable Energy Directive an finally the RES-30 Scenario with the same assumptions as the RES Reference Scenario, but enforcing a 30% reduction target for CO2 emissions over the whole of the European Union.
The results obtained per country for these four scenarios show the least cost allocation of the target per source of renewable energy and sector of energy consumption. Overall, on the EU27 level, renewable electricity should account for about 36% of the net electricity production and renewable input for heat production should account for 20% of the total input for heat production in order to achieve the target.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The RES2020 project is supported by the “Intelligent Energy – Europe” programme. The sole responsibility for the content of this publication lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Communities. The European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein."Renewable energy sources in the Republic of Moldova and estimation of its energy potential" by Berzan V. P, Tirsu M. S. (IPE - Moldova)
In paper the general data on geographical, demographic and climatic features of Republic Moldova will be resulted; data about dynamics of consumption of power resources for last 10-15 years; the information on barriers which interfere with wider use of RES.
Data on technical potential of principal kinds of renewable energy in republic territory (biomass, solar energy, wind, hydraulic power, energy of sources with low thermal potential), and also results of some realised projects after use of RES energy, basically a biomass will be presented. Now technical potential of RES is estimated in 2,7 million t.o.e., that as a whole exceeds consumption level of power resources in Republic Moldova at the given stage of economy development.
Process of RES using in Republic Moldova is at an initial stage, and their share in a power balance of republic does not exceed 4 %. The most essential share of RES energy potential use is constituted by hydraulic power and a biomass. The potential of solar, wind energy and low thermal potential sources is used rather poorly, but there are good prospects for use of solar radiation for heat reception."Renewable energy in Egypt" by Eusebius Nkongho Obi, Abd El Rahman (New & Renewable Energy Authority in Cairo - Egypt)
During the last two decades, renewable energy has gained a remarkamable momentum in Egypt. Supported by a sustained governmental commitment and fruitful international cooperation, Egypt has been able to bridge the phase of initial resource assessment and few limited capacity demonstration projects towards planning and implementation of large scale grid-connected projects. After setting up the institutional framework in 1986 by establishing the New & Renewable Energy Authority (NREA), capacity building activities took place through the availing NREA’s organizational infrastructure, particularly, testing and certification laboratories and qualified manpower. NREA programs started by assessing the renewable energy resource and investigating the choices of different technologies through studies and pilot projects, as well as introducing some of these technologies to the Egyptian market and supporting the initiatives of local industry. Since then a series of large- scale wind energy projects has been constructed with a total capacity of 335MW with several projects in the pipe line. In the solar energy field, the first solar thermal power plant of 140MW is currently under construction. In addition, more than 500,000m2 of domestic solar heaters and 5MW of photovoltaic systems are operational in Egypt. Within the scope of the previous activities, good knowledge and experiences have been gained in resource assessment, planning design, implementation, operation and maintenance of renewable energy projects, which have enabled NREA to provide specialized training and capacity building programs not only locally but also on Arab and African levels. Recently, Egypt has adopted an ambitious plan to get 20%of the electricity generated in the country from renewable energy by 2020, including a 12% contribution from wind energy, translating into more than 7000 MW grip-connected wind farms. Such a plan provides enough room to the private investment institution to plan a major role in realizing this goal.
A4. Biofuels
"Research on plant fibre-reinforced polymer composites" by Steve K. Ales and K.E.D. Sumanasiri (PNG University of Technology - Papua New Guinea)
In the localities of Papua New Guinea there are various agricultural by-products such as wood chips from timber processing industries, coir from coconut husks from copra industries and domestic uses, and sugar cane fibres (bagasse) from sugar industries etc. Other agro plant fibres such as pineapple, sisal, banana, and corn have been considered as wastes in PNG. These large volumes of by-products and wastes have not been significantly used in any productive ways as from our observations. This phenomenon has led us to utilize these by-products and wastes to produce natural fibre-reinforced polymer composites.
Research activities are currently being carried out particularly on how these by-products and wastes can be utilized to make useful value added products in the form of polymer composites to suit the needs in the local industries and domestic uses in PNG. Products such as hard boards, panel boards, particle boards, insulations etc. can be produced with these techniques. In this way environmental damage can be reduced to some extent by minimizing felling trees for timber and at the same time reducing the green house effect.
The main objectives of this research are: creating employment and improve economy for the people living in the rural areas; introduce plant fibres as useful commodities and promote agriculture through utilizing the plant fibres as multi-purpose agro plants and reduce green house effect through environmental protection.
Production techniques such as synthetic resin transfer injection, extrusion and hand lay-up moulding are being used in this work and important mechanical properties such as tensile strength, stiffness, and flexural modulus are determined for plant fibre-reinforced polyester composites. The fibre surface treatments are being done to plants to have enhanced mechanical properties using chemical reagents. The simple manufacturing techniques can be transferred to the local people to produce their own products while buying only the chemical reagents from suppliers.
Some areas of interest of applications are: building and construction industry, packaging, laundry and household uses.
"The Status Quo of Forest-tree Bioenergy and Related Policies in China" by Dr. LI Zhiyong (Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information - People’s Republic of China) and Dr. LI Nuyun (State Forestry Administration - People’s Republic of China)
"Weak Policy Implementation? Functional approach to the analysis of EU biofuels policy documents" by Elena A. Batkova (University of Freiburg – Germany)
"Biogas a secure and sustainable energy source: Obstacles and perspectives of biogas projects in Greece" by Sioulas Konstantinos (CRES - Greece)
The energy sector in Greece undergoing the last years significant changes due to the EU and national policies in the field of energy and environment (eg. full liberalization of the energy market, environmental protection). The impact and effects of the implementation of these policies are not yet visible and especially for the near future (eg. energy price, energy mix, further RES penetration). Although lignite, the main domestic fossil fuel resource of Greece, it seems that will continue to play a major role in the country’s fuel mix in the future, further RES penetration is a necessity.
The new law for RES (3468/2006) is dedicated to the promotion of RES, sets a new environment in the electricity generation and among others, simplifies the licensing procedures, the guaranteed market price is increased, while the licensing deadlines are being reduced. However, it seems that the situation for the attractiveness of new biogas investments has not been significantly changed until now.
During last years renewable development in Greece is positively affected by the country’s very good resource potential and the state policy. The Legislative framework has significantly improved by the introduction of new RES and environmental legislation. However, although the legislative framework (eg. energy and environmental policy, EU and country commitments, new law for RE matters, etc) and the financial environment have changed the picture, so that new biogas plants were constructed and operated, there are still barriers (mainly no technological) which affect to further biogas exploitation and deployment in Greece (eg. public perception, experience and awareness mainly on farm scale and industrial biogas applications, lack of price for the heat production, licensing procedure, lack of «gate fees» for waste disposal, externalities like euthrophication, groundwater pollution, replacement of fossil fuels which are not assessed and monetized, price of the biogas-produced electricity, etc).
The paper will give an overview about the current biogas market in Greece and will attempt to illustrate the main barriers that a biogas project may face during the design, development and implementation phase in Greece. This work can assist all the involved parties in understandings which are today the most important barriers and how they can affect the whole lifetime of a biogas project. In parallel can become a useful tool and help the policy makers and biogas market actors on coordinated initiatives in order to reduce, eliminate or even remove at least the most crucial of these barriers.
"Renewable energy in Egypt" by Eusebius Nkongho Obi, Abd El Rahman (New & Renewable Energy Authority in Cairo - Egypt)
Harnessing renewable energy with optimum use of naturally available resources is one key initiative that members addressing issue of climate change can ill-afford to overlook. Renewable energy like wind, solar and hydro do not provide opportunity for diverse resources but biomass based route for RE provides a vast range of varied resources – cultivated and uncultivated – and hence the optimal choice of resource
and process becomes important. With sufficient territory and abundant biomass resource, India has suitable environment to develop and field test biomass resources and technologies for optimum utilization. There are large parts of rural India which have access neither to conventional energy resources nor to the gird connected electricity to meet energy related needs. Therefore biomass based decentralised generation is ideal for these conditions. The Development Alternatives (DA, a non profit organisation) has pioneered in setting up and running of biomass based community power plants for rural electrification in Bundelkahnd region of central India. DA has set up biomass based community power plants of sizes 10 kW, 40 kW and 100 kW using updraft gasifiers in this industrially backward and drought prone, rain fed agriculture economic region. This paper addresses the issue of optimal use of biomass energy resource for distributed electricity generation to meet local irrigation, commercial and domestic needs in rural India to create a sustainable and replicable
model. Options explored were not only naturally growing weeds like Ipomia/ Sesbenia but also were tamping agro-waste (husk) and forest waste into solid biomass for gasification. Optimised use of biomass distributed decentralised generation has a huge potential for scaling up in rural segment of developing countries.
This paper is a concept note on Sunlabob’s latest innovation to tackle the challenge of rural electrification using renewable energy sources in developing countries. A technical and operational description is given of a rechargeable battery lantern and solar charging station rental scheme, which at the time of writing was at a pilot implementation stage. Two key principles drive the innovation. Firstly it is necessary to go beyond improving living conditions through electrification and work towards increasing income in local communities, with the involvement of villagers, and cooperation between the public and private sectors. Secondly service-oriented solutions offer a more sustainable approach than hardware interventions for rural electrification in developing countries. The system was designed as a competitive alternative to the conventional use of kerosene for lighting purposes found in many rural households. End-users pay for a service (i.e. number of hours of lighting) rather than the hardware, in a manner qualitatively similar to the purchase of kerosene. Technical assistance and training is provided by Sunlabob, but the operation and management is undertaken by villagers, in order to empower communities and develop a sense of ownership, and hence ensure sustainability. The battery lantern rental scheme is the product of Sunlabob’s many years of experience in providing electricity using renewable energy sources to rural communities in Laos. A brief market analysis is provided in context of the rechargeable lantern system, and risks and opportunities are considered for investment.
"Solid state fermentation of sweet sorghum by Saccharomyces cerevisiae to bioethanol production" by Karamousantas, D., Th. Varzakas (Technological Educational Institution of Kalamata - Hellas), D. Arapoglou, C. Israilides (Institute of Technology of Agricultural Products - Hellas)
"The use of renewable energy sources in agricultural greenhouses and the Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata’s greenhouse case study" by D.Ch. Karamousantas (Technological Educational Institution of Kalamata - Hellas)
B. Environmental -Climate Change Policy
General topics
"Mitigations as related to the enhanced use of wood-biomass: Macroeconomic, sectoral and environmental impacts", by Dr. Todor Balabanov (Institut fuer Hoehere Studien -Austria)
The main objectives of this paper are to identify fuel substitution potential both by estimating potential price induced energy substitution and by considering available technological options. We secondly consider the impacts of CO2 taxation on reduction of emissions until 2020 assuming CO2 neutrality of burning fuel wood. By making use of the Austrian Computable Equilibrium Model for Energy Environment Economy interaction we are addressing the macroeconomic, environmental and sectoral impacts of enhanced usages of fuel wood for energy. The main assumptions are a 1.5 times increase of fuel wood use by 2020 and achieving a share of renewables of 29.83%. The main outcome for this scenario is that the Austrian economy could benefit from the double dividend of sustained economic growth and fulfilment of EU targets on renewables and CO2 reduction. The price for this is certainly the worsening prospects for the energy intensive industries - most of them would have to reconsider their technological options and could face adverse conditions for their production sites.
"A POD model for the concentration field of gases instantaneously released in the atmosphere" by Anastasios ANTYPAS (OR Consultant - Greece)
"Investigate via internet the personal values of life and how determine the consumer’s environmental behaviour", by Stefanos Oikonomou, George Drosatos, Maria Oikonomou (Democritus University of Thrace - Greece)
Everyday the following question is posed: how the adoptions of green strategies are successful from the enterprises point of view? To address this issue, we should investigate the existence of a part of the market which determines the buyers’ decisions according to the environmental characteristics of the product.
The existence of environmental consciousness is related firstly to the research of demographic characteristics and secondly to personal values of life.
The research was carried out via the internet using questionnaire which (was upload). The answers were recorded automatically with the aid of a data base. The sampling process was random. Participants were invited to fill the questionnaire by e- mails. The e-mails were sent to a large number of recipients. This paper presents the evaluation of 800 questionnaires.
Firstly, a list of 31 questions recorded consumer’s opinions concerning the environmental degradation. Also we pose the question whether they would desire to pay an amount of money for the environmental protection. Later, specific and various amount of money were proposed and recorded the willingness of people to pay or not. Those who did not like to pay, they argue why they disagree. We took into account the opinions regarding the environmental degradation as well as to demographic characteristics when we evaluated their willingness to pay or not."Environmental evaluation of the hotels and renting rooms at Thasos Island", Stefanos Oikonomou, George Drosatos, Maria Oikonomou (Democritus University of Thrace - Greece)
"Energy policy and environmental management in hotel industry" by Sofia-Natalia Boemi (University of Ioannina - Greece), Agis M. Papadopoulos (Aristotle University of Thessaloniki - Greece) and Giouli Mihalakakou (University of Ioannina - Greece)
An energy management system (EMS) is a tool that can be used to shape the energy policy of a hotel. Even though varying EMS differ significantly both in quality and field of action, they all aim at designing a systematic environmental upgrade for the end user, i.e. a hotel. The adoption of an EMS can be proven to be economically viable. It can also be used as a marketing tool and can contribute to achieve adaptability towards complying with present and future changes of legislation. The two globally know EMS are ISO 14001 and Eco Management and Audit Schemes (EMAS). Recently the European Eco-LABEL, a voluntary scheme designed to encourage businesses to market products and services that are more environment-friendly has been introduced. The adoption of an EMS leads to a sustainable touristic development by improving the quality of its facilities and its services. The paper to be presented focuses on the difficulties, potential and the configuration of energy policy of applying EMS in the “real world” of hotels in Greece.
"Integrated Water Resource management as a part of the Climate change adaptation strategies-the legal approach" by Vicky Karagiorgou (Panteion University – Greece)
The main aim of the presentation is to analyze how adaptive elements can be embedded into water legislation and policies and how coordination with various laws related to the management of other natural resources can be achieved within the concept of sustainable development. The analysis will also focus on the legal instruments that can be used in order to encourage efficient water use and to achieve balance among competing uses under circumstances being characterized by uncertainty due to climate change. The design and application of any instruments relating to water demand (fees, pricing policies) should not in any case provide an obstacle to ensuring access to basic water services for all parts of the society, taking into consideration the dimension of water as a public good. The interaction between climate change and water has also to be taken into account, when certain mitigation policies, such as the biofuel production are designed and applied. Certain conclusions are to be drawn in order to indicate that the adaptation challenge will be addressed to some extent through a series of changes in the way that societies manage and use their water resources.
"A new type of the diagrams of distribution for evaluating the ion-molecular buffering capacity of acidic natural waters in the equilibrium with the mineral phase gibbsite" by Igor Povar and Vasile Rusu (Institute of Chemistry - Moldova)
In this work, a new theoretical approach is developed to evaluate the ion-molecular buffering capacity, âX, of acidic natural waters in the equilibrium with the mineral gibbsite (solid phase) with respect to pX, where pX=-log[X] (pX =pH for acid-base buffers and pAl for the aluminium-ion buffer). Gibbsite Al(OH)3(s) has the major control on soluble aluminium species at a given pH but the degree to which Al may form various complexes decreases its free concentration in natural waters. These waters tend to maintain a rather constant pAl even though the Al3+ ions may be introduced from some external sources. The concept of buffering capacity is very useful in assessing the acid-base status of acidic natural waters as well as for estimating the Al buffering effect. The developed approach allows for evaluating the behaviour of buffering capacities âH and âAl in natural waters by taking into account the Al buffering domination. The influence of various factors (temperature, the accuracy of thermodynamic data, pH and concentrations of main components in natural waters) on the buffer characteristics of these two-phase buffer systems was investigated. Our approach was tested on real water quality data and was applied to the practical analysis of natural water samples.
"A new type of the diagrams of distribution for soluble and insoluble forms of aluminium in natural heterogeneous aquatic systems" by Igor Povar and Vasile Rusu (Moldova)
"The influence of 4-Phenylthiosemicarbazide on cadmium ion determination in the prut river waters by cathodic stripping voltametry" by Tatiana Cazac, Ludmila Chiriac, M. Revenco and I. Povar (Institute of Chemistry - Moldova)
"Molybdenum (VI) determination in natural waters from polarographic catalytic current of chlorate-ions and thiosemicarbazone 2,3-dihidroxybenzaldehyde" by Ludmila Chiriac, Tatiana Cazac, M. Revenco and I. Povar (Moldova)
"Use of two activated carbons for treatment of textile wastewater containing dyes and surfactant contaminants" , by Nina Timbaliuc and T. Lupascu (Institute of Chemistry - Moldova)
"Sorption performance of activated carbons after oxidation and metal impregnation treatments" by Ion Dranca and Tudor Lupascu (Institute of Chemistry – Moldova)
This study was undertaken to assess the thermal regeneration potential of ACs (derived from agricultural by-products) following their saturation with CPs. The ACs were chemically
modified by oxidation and impregnation with salts of various metals in an attempt to: (a) increase the efficiency of AC regeneration; (b) decrease the regeneration temperature via a catalytic effect.B1: Climate change
"Present Status of Global Warming Simulation Research in Japan", by Akimasa Sumi (University of Tokyo - Japan)
CCSR has developed a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean model jointly with NIES (National Institute of Environmental Studies) and FRCGC (Frontier Research Center for Global Change). It is denoted to be a MIROC, where we have two versions, that is, a high resolution version is T106L56 AGCM and 1/4x1/6 degree L44 OGCM, and a medium-resolution version is T42L20 AGCM and 1-1.4 degree L44 OGCM. Their results are included in IPCC AR4 data set. Model development is continuously pursued by the same group. A further high-resolution model (T213L56 AGCM with the same OGCM) will be developed together with improvement of physical packages.
In the Global Warming Simulation Research, three projects are being conducted, that is, (1) a long-term simulation, (2) a near-term prediction and (3) an extreme event simulation. In the long-term simulation, a modeling of carbon-cycle and the earth-system is being emphasized. Especially, a dynamic-vegetation model is unique, where a competition between plant types is explicitly treated. In the near-term prediction, data assimilation scheme and initialization scheme is being developed. Also decadal predictability is being investigated. So far, several-year-predictability about PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is confirmed. For the extreme event, a non-hydrostatic model with 2km resolution is being planned. In these projects, interaction between modeling group and impact study is emphasized.
In the global warming issue, now is time when action should be taken. In this case, uncertainty to prediction and communication to society about the uncertainty is critical and a project for this is being conducted.
In the age of action it is very important to overview various aspects relating to the global warming issue. For this purpose, a mapping of the global warming issues is presented and analysis of knowledge given by IPCC AR4 and research fund by the Japanese government was conducted based on the mapping. It is demonstrated that research relating to design of the future society and quality of life in the future society is weak and further research should be conducted."Estimation of mean maximum summer and mean minimum winter temperatures over Greece in 2070-2100 using statistical downscaling methods", Anastasios Skourkeas, Fotini Kolyva-Machera, Panagiotis Maheras (Aristotle University of Thessaloniki-Greece)
On a first step, the statistical model is calibrated for the period 1958-1978+1994-2000 and then it is validated for the intermediate years 1979-1993. Afterwards, the same statistical downscaling model is applied in order to generate a present day scenario using the data from the atmospheric General Circulation Model HadAM3P (Hadley Center), for the period 1960-1990 which is the control run period of the GCM.
In conclusion, two large scale outputs of IPCC - SRES are fed into these statistical models, in order to estimate the above temperatures in 2070-2100. In the first experiment with the scenario A2 there is a significant increase for the mean maximum summer temperatures (mean minimum winter temperatures) from 1.8°C to 4.9°C (0.8°C-1.7°C). In the second experiment with the more optimistic scenario B2 there is also a significant increase for the mean maximum summer temperatures (mean minimum winter temperatures) from 1.2°C to 3.2°C (0.6°C-1.2°C)."Infected Risk Assessment with Exposure to Pathogens in the Flood Water in Metro Manila, Phillippines" by Assoc. Prof. Kensuke Fukushi and Tran Thi Viet Nga University of Tokyo - Japan)
"Effects of Carbon Tax on Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Energy Security in a Developing Country", by Prof. Ram Shrestha (Asian Institute of Technology - Thailand)
This paper first analyzes the total primary energy supply, sectoral energy consumption patterns and emissions of CO2 in Sri Lanka during the period of 2005 to 2050 in a reference case, that does not consider any climate policy intervention. The paper then examines the effects of carbon tax on the choice of energy resources and technologies, total cost as well as capacity- and energy-mix in power generation under different carbon tax schemes. The paper also analyzes the energy security implications of carbon tax for the country during 2005-2050. A long term energy system planning model of Sri Lanka based on the MARKAL (MARKet Allocation) framework is used for the analyses. Energy security indices such as net energy import dependency, diversification of energy resources (based on Shannon-Wiener Index) and economic vulnerability in terms of the cost of imported energy during the planning period are estimated under each of the carbon tax cases.
"Energy Conservation Measures in the contexts of climate change mitigation policy in Kazakhstan" by Lyubov Inyutina and Sergey Inyutin (Turan - Astana University - Kazakhstan)
"Energy and Climate Policy of Ukraine as Part of Concept of Sustainable Energy Development", by Prof. Arthur Prakhovnyk and Assoc.Prof. Evgenij Inshekov (ESEMI - Ukraine)
Sustainable development of the society is well-known process supported by all world community. Energy sector of economy in each country is the main driving and influence factor for successfully development of the country in sustainable way. For Ukrainian condition a concept of sustainable energy development was proposed, based on Smart-Grid Technology, Distributed Generation and Implementation of Energy Efficiency Measure via Eco-Energy Management and Audit System (2EMAS). Energy and climate policy in the country is an important part for implementation of this concept, special for Ukraine as the country with specific geo-political and geographical (transit opportunities) position and significant possibility for participation in flexible mechanisms of Kyoto (and hopefully post-Kyoto). All this link to the security of the EU energy supply as well as emerging regional energy and emission markets.
The paper to be presented focuses on the status, difficulties, potential and the perspectives of energy and climate policy of Ukraine in context of general movement for sustainable energy development.In the paper the role of wastewater (ww) and air pollution as result of Power Engineering is analyzed. We have analyzed the procedure of ecological risk assessment and vulnerability of territories to wastewater and air pollution impacts as result of Power Engineering pollution. Anthropogenic activities of Power Engineering create wastewater and air pollution, and lead to growth of entropy on the Earth; this lead to greenhouse effect and, as result, to climate change. The human Power activities disturb heat and entropy balance and impair ecology. Wastewater in river and sea basins as well as air pollution can influence an exchange of energy between sunlight on the Earth and long-wave radiation leaving in space. We have carried out of entropy analyse of the Earth. It is very important, properly to take into of energy conservation, entropic stability and to considerate this aspects relating to the global warming issue.
"National projections of GHG emissions by sources and their removal by sinks for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020" by Anca Popescu and Anca Bardici (ISPE - Romania)
Romania’s current political outlook regarding environmental protection presents a proactive approach that is mainly shaped by the approximation of national policy to EU standards. Chapter 19 of Romania’s Governmental Programme 2009-2012 (adopted in December 2008) stipulates specific priorities for climate change mitigation and adoption of specific policies and measures in order to stabilize GHG emissions (promote the decrease of energy consumption through the use of efficient energy technologies, thermal insulation of residences and through sustaining the use of less polluting vehicles; promoting the cheap and clean energy production from renewable sources; identifying and implementing of feasible measures on carbon capture and storage). Important parts of these commitments are already being implemented, such as the elaboration of the National Strategy on Climate Change (NSCC) and the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), as well as the development of institutional capacity at the national level. Other provisions of the government’s programme concerning climate change were also developed, like the establishment of the legal procedure for the national system of assessing GHG emissions, the national registry and the adaptation measures.
The methodology for GHG projections calculation is similar to the one used for establishing the National Allocation Plan under the EU ETS. It relies both on historical data provided by the National GHG Inventory, for the period 1989-2006, and on macroeconomic indicators forecasts, indicators considered in the Romanian Government’s relevant strategies and for the socio-economic policies taking into consideration EU acquis communautaire.
The Energy sector is the main GHG source, with approximately 70% from total emissions in accordance with the National GHG Inventory; therefore, the GHG projections were determined on Energy sector and non-energy sectors.
The GHG emissions projections were prepared for three different scenarios:
- a reference scenario, "business as usual" (BAU), possible to be realized in the future, which does not include distinct activities for GHG emissions mitigation;
- a “with measures” scenario similar to the BAU scenario considering the evolution of the economic-social indicators, which comprises GHG emissions mitigation policies and programmes;
- a “with additional measures” scenario similar to the "with measures" scenario, which comprises additional GHG emissions mitigation policies and programmes.
"Evaluating policy options for increasing the RES-E penetration in Greece", by Dr. Harry D. KAMBEZIDIS (NOA - Greece), Kasselouri Barbara (Open University - Greece) and Dr. Popi Konidari (KEPA - NKUA, Greece)
The new Directive 2009/28/EC for the promotion of energy from renewable sources sets mandatory national targets for the overall share of RES in gross final consumption of energy by 2020 and for the share of RES in transport. The Hellenic target is set at 18%, 11% higher compared to the share of RES in gross final consumption of energy in 2005.
This paper focuses on the most suitable policy mix for Greece in achieving the aforementioned target. For the determination of this policy mix two research tools are used, the Green-X simulation model and the multi-criteria evaluation method AMS; the latter is the combination of the standard AHP, MAUT and SMART methods.
The Green-X simulation model is used to create two different scenarios about Greece, the 1st according to business-as-usual policy settings and the 2nd with different combinations of policies per type of RES (also per year, if necessary). Green-X forecasts the development of electricity production / consumption, costs and prices of electricity, considering the Kyoto Protocol commitments for CO2 emissions. More specifically, the model foresees country specific parameters for each year of simulation regarding electricity generation / consumption (percentages of RES, ELE, CHP), generation costs, costs for applying different policies as well as prices per unit. The outcomes of the model will be used as inputs to the AMS method. Official reports for the status of the national renewable energy sector will also be used for the evaluation. The results of the method concerning both scenarios will show which one ensures an effective policy framework for achieving the new target. Sensitivity analysis is used to examine the robustness of the final results.
The paper will conclude with discussing the outcomes of both tools regarding the new national target and the policy recommendations that are more effective in achieving this target.
"River water quality modeling under climate change in Kura-Araks basin" by Nalbandyan M.A., Ajabyan N.A. (Armenia)
Long-term monitoring study of the quality and quantity of water in Kura-Araks watershed is used for reference and the model predictions verifying.
Development of a model for the polluting substances transfer is directed to solution of tasks of water quality management in Kura-Araks rivers basin, on an example of Aghstev river as a transboundary river basin in South Caucasus. The model will allow taking into account factors of both anthropogenic and natural pollution, as well as the impact of climate change in the region. Estimates for parameters of the model are derived from hydrological and hydrochemical data of river [1], [2], [3], [4], as well as statistical analyses of data for some priority pollutants inflowing in the river.
The proposed approach to modeling will be further developed and used for applied models of spatial transportation of pollutants in Kura-Araks rivers basin."Mathematical modeling and prognosis of the main river of Tajikistan water discharge and optimization of hydropower station with reservoirs", Anvar S. Kodirov, Parviz I. Normatov, N.Shermatov (Institute of Water Problems, Hydropower and Ecology Academy of Sciences Republic of Tajikistan - Tajikistan)
The present work is devoted to development mathematical forecasting models of a water drain mountain of Vakhsh river on which the basic hydraulic engineering constructions Republic of Tajikistan are located.
With the purpose of increase an overall performance of hydraulic engineering constructions are presented results of mathematical models optimization of hydraulic engineering constructions.
Carried out constructions of new hydraulic engineering constructions allow to plan research, and to raise efficiency current."Implementing the G8 80% target with the macro-econometric E3MG model" by Á. S. Dagoumas and T.S. Barkera (Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR), University of Cambridge - UK)
This paper examines the implementation of the G8 80% emissions reduction target using a macro-econometric hybrid model E3MG of the global economy, which stands for Energy-Economy-Environment model at the Global level. The E3MG combines a top-down approach for modelling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom-up approach (ETM submodel) for simulating the power sector, which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy. The ETM submodel uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies, considering also their economic-technical and environmental characteristics.
Very recently (June 2009) G8 committed to reduce their emissions by 80% by 2050 reduce their greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050, and to work towards keeping temperature levels from rising 2 degrees Celsius. The EU has announced (September 2009) its will to provide up to 15 billion euros a year to help developing countries fight climate change and adapt to its predicted devastating consequences. Specific countries, such as the UK, passed new legislation (2008) to reduce its emissions by 80%, less than one year from its previous commitment to reduce emissions by 60%. All these actions are coordinated efforts from the developed countries, aiming to prepare the framework for a new global agreement on the Copenhagen Summit in December 2009. Such an agreement seems to be unlikely in the short-term, as the developing countries are demanding a stronger support. Therefore, the realistic political framework is the G8 commitment to reduce emissions by 2050.
The E3MG model is used to implement this target and to compare it with a baseline scenario, where no reduction target is pursued. Both scenarios consider that impact of the financial crisis, with updated information to summer 2009. This paper aims to provide evidence that such a deep reduction target can be met providing gains for the economy."Evaluating the policy framework of the Energy Community Treaty countries for the promotion of renewable energy sources" by Dr. Popi KONIDARI (KEPA - NKUA, Greece)
The Treaty establishing the Energy Community in Southeastern (S.E.) Europe entered into force in 2005. Within one year of that date the contracting parties undertook – according to article 20 of this Treaty - the obligation to develop national plans for the promotion of: i) electricity produced from renewable energy sources (RES-E) in the internal electricity market (Directive 2001/77/EC) and ii) the use of biofuels or other renewable fuels for transport (Directive 2003/30/EC). Due to the new Renewable Energy Directive (2008), the Energy Community countries need now to undertake also mandatory RES-E national targets similar to those to be achieved by the EU Member States and to implement measures for applying the provisions on cooperation foreseen in the Directive between Member States.
This paper ranks the Energy Community countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, FYROM, Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia) using the evaluation method AMS (the combination of the multi-criteria methods AHP, MAUT and SMART) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. AMS has been used for the evaluation of climate change policy instruments and of their interactions. Both methods are used in this paper to evaluate under the same set of criteria and sub-criteria the relevant policy framework of each one of the Energy Community countries for achieving the aforementioned objectives. Research papers, official reports and presentations of the Energy Community Secretariat, of international organizations and of the relevant ministries and national institutions of the contracting parties will be used for the evaluation. Sensitivity analysis is used to examine the robustness of the final results.
The outcomes will be used to comment on the readiness of the countries to implement the new Directive and on the effectiveness of the AMS method compared to another evaluation method.Using the AMS method to evaluate the policy framework for potential CDM projects in the BSEC countries by Dr. Popi KONIDARI (KEPA-NKUA, Greece)
This paper ranks these seven BSEC countries according to the effectiveness of their policy framework for implementing such projects. The evaluation method AMS (combination of the multi-criteria standard AHP, MAUT and SMART methods) is used for this ranking. The application of the method identifies which of them and for which types of potential CDM projects they can be characterized as investment opportunities. All countries and all types of projects are evaluated under the same set of criteria and subcriteria. The evaluation is based on available data for such projects in these countries and research papers, official reports and presentations of international organizations and of the relevant ministries and national institutions of these countries. Sensitivity analysis is used to examine the robustness of the final results.
The outcomes will be used to comment on the overall attractiveness of these BSEC countries as CDM host countries. Policy recommendations based on the outcomes will be also discussed.B2: Energy efficiency and conservation
"Energy efficiency in Residential Buildings. The Comparison between Degree Day Calculation and Simulations", Teet-Andrus Koiv, Hendrik Voll, Allan Hani (Tallinn University of Technology - Estonia)
Article firstly presents the two different calculation methologies the degree-day method and the energy demand calculation for calculating the heating energy consumption in residential buildings. Secondly, heating energy consumption results for residential buildings for both calculation methods before and after reconstruction are presented. Finally these two calculation methods: the degree-day method and the energy demand calculation by simulation have then been compared.
The results show that in residential buildings the heat energy requirements can be determined by the degree-day calculation method with good sufficient accuracy. In office buildings, however, for the analysis of the heat energy consumption the simulation software is necessary."Need of Bioclimatic Architecture due to Climate Change" by Suveena kasat (Santosh arts - India)
Recent years have seen an increasing emphasis on bioclimatic design in response to the threat of climate change and resulting ascendancy of ‘Sustainable Architecture’. There is also an astonishing post-millennial growth of tall building design. This has generated a renewed interest on ‘Tall and Green’ architects such as the Malaysian architect Ken Yeang who has identified bioclimatically designed tall buildings as one of the means of densifying urban centers and reducing the overall urban energy bill, compared with sprawling low rise habitat.
It is generally accepted that climate change is due to rising atmospheric concentrations of ‘greenhouse’ gases – most importantly carbon dioxide and methane. In the industrialized world, buildings consume half the energy we generate and are responsible for half the carbon emissions, the remainder being shared between transport and industry. Architects clearly have a role to play in challenging this equation and it is also important to note how can city governments promote regulations that ensure architects design this way?
This article seeks to address the potential of the bioclimatic approach for improved energy efficient design and better comfort condition for the occupants. It explores the impact of climate change with requirements of energy efficiency in building regulations on the integration of bioclimatic concepts into architectural design.
High-rise buildings which originated from North American are now found in almost every major city around the world, especially in the developing countries of Asia where the climatic conditions are quite different, but the social context is more conducive to high-rise. The bioclimatic approach is concerned with problems of energy usage, air quality, amenity provided by the building to its users; user ‘wellbeing’ and productivity can all be affected by the environmental conditions in the building.
Global problems need global solution “Bioclimatic design is not an option but a necessity”.
In a quest for a more sustainable approach for skyscraper designs which can survive economically for 50 years, architects also need to consider the needs of investors and developers for creating more marketable (30 year cycle) skyscrapers. Bioclimatic skyscrapers can also have a beneficial impact in the environment by integrating the built-environment with green ecological systems of the locality and to positively contribute to the ecology and biodiversity of the place.
